Seven years ago, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift in Position and Closed Debates
Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Document and Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018
This situation returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
